#1 CHART - Solid Selections,
#2 CHART - Many Options by VRValues,
#3 CHART - Many Options by VRV-Qualy,
#4 SOFTWARE
# Case “Solid Selection”
2nd Race - Aqueduct - Wednesday, March 23rd, 2005 Claiming.
Purse $16,000.
Selections: 1 3
2 6F Dirt
1 TWIN TOWER
(PER) 115 [A-1] 9 1-3-3
[+] [26%] D 10: 100,40% T 10: -
03/07/05 Pha 2º 118.(hd) 6 1/2F 1:16.95c d
- f 18000 $2,70 2-A-1 100,40%
02/21/05 Lrl 3º 120.(7 1/2) 6F 1:11.36c d - f 20000 $3,60 3-B-3 101,03%
01/31/05 Pha 2º 120.(nk) 7F 1:24.79c d - f 18594 $*2.90 2-C-6 100,49%
12/19/04 Pha 5º 120.(11 3/4) 6F 1:10.27c d - f 19000 $1,50 5-B-3 103,93%
12/04/04 Pha 1º 117.(3) 6 1/2F 1:18.41c d - f 22000 $1,80 1-A-2 101,12%
10/31/04 Pha 3º 118.( 1/2) 6 1/2F 1:18.98c d - f 13500 $*0.80 3-B-2 102,65%
10/16/04 Pha 2º 117.(1 3/4) 6F 1:10.23c d - f 22000 $34,00 2-D-5 101,11%
2 ATLANTIC
PATROL 120 [C-3] 7 2-2-1
[ ] [16%] D 10: 101,60% T 10: -
02/13/05 Aqu 2º 112.(3 1/4) 6F 1:12.99c d(i) - f 12000 $*1.00 2-A-1 104,19%
02/03/05 Aqu 2º 120.(2 1/2) 6F 1:11.53c d(i) - f 12000 $5,20 2-C-2 101,60%
12/08/04 Aqu 4º 118.(4 1/4) 6F 1:12.53c d(i) - f 23000 $8,20 4-A-3 103,12%
11/13/04 Aqu 3º 119.(1 3/4) 6F 1:13.23c d - slo 18000 $*1.70 3-B-1 102,64%
11/02/04 Mea 1º 118.(2 1/2) 6F 1:10.39c d - f 11000 $2,70 1-C-2 102,45%
09/18/04 Del 5º 115.(13 1/4) 6F 1:12.29c d - slo 19500 $6,40 5-A-1 106,12%
09/05/04 Del 1º 119.(nk) 5 1/2F 1:06.24c d - f 15250 $9,90 1-Z-99 102,59%
3 SMART
GRACE 120 [C-2] 6 1-1-2
[ ] [18%] D 10: 101,40% T
10: -
01/31/05 Pha 3º 118.( 1/2) 7F 1:24.79c d - f 18594 $5,50 3-B-5 101,40%
12/18/04 CT 7º 111.(6 3/4) 6 1/2F 1:21.01c d - f 28000 $*1.50 7-A-1 103,48%
11/07/04 Pim 9º 119.(3 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:45.53c d - f 30000 $6,40 9-C-6 101,75%
10/22/04 Pim 3º 124.(6 3/4) 6F 1:11.12c d - f 27000 $*0.90 3-B-4 102,25%
10/02/04 Pim 2º 124.(1) 5F :58.02c d - f 27000 $*0.80 2-C-3 101,83%
09/11/04 Mth 1º 119.( 1/2) 6F 1:11.66c d - f 31000 $4,30 1-Z-99 102,44%
4 BLAZING
TUNE 120 [D-6] 9 0-0-3
[+] [9%] D 10:
102,61% T 10: 102,80%
03/02/05 Aqu 3º 120.(3 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:46.54c d(i) - f 17500 $5,00 3-D-5 102,68%
02/03/05 Aqu 3º 113.(3 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:46.69c d(i) - f 15000 $6,70 3-B-3 102,79%
01/20/05 Aqu 5º 120.(15) 1M 70Y 1:42.35c d(i) - f 22000 $4,60 5-C-6 103,08%
01/02/05 Aqu 6º 120.(8 1/4) 1 1/16M 1:48.06c d(i) - f 22000 $16,80 6-C-6 104,04%
10/31/04 Del 3º 117.(6 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:47.77c d - f 23300 $27,30 3-C-4 102,61%
10/07/04 Mea 6º 111.(3 1/2) 1M 70Y 1:41.12c t - frm 31000 $15,00 6-C-8 102,80%
08/29/04 Del 6º 117.(17) 1 1/16M 1:46.16c d - f 26600 $12,80 6-C-5 104,71%
5 MARQUET
RATE 115 [D-5] 19 3-2-3
[ ] [11%] D
10: 101,06% T 10: -
SCRATCHED
6 BUSY
120 [C-4] 11 4-3-1
[+] [13%] D
10: 101,25% T 10: -
03/03/05 Aqu 1º 122.(3 1/2) 6F 1:11.84c d(i) - f 11400 $*0.50 1-B-2 101,94%
02/09/05 Aqu 4º 120.(7 1/4) 6F 1:12.64c d(i) - f 21000 $*2.25 4-C-3 103,85%
01/15/05 Aqu 1º 115.(3) 6F 1:12.80c d(i) - g 12000 $2,00 1-A-1 101,25%
11/17/04 Aqu 4º 123.(13) 6F 1:12.14c d - f 18620 $*1.90 4-C-3 105,07%
10/20/04 Mea 1º 118.(2) 6F 1:10.19c d - mud 28000 $2,50 1-A-1 101,55%
10/03/04 Bel 2º 118.(1 1/2) 6F 1:11.74c d - f 24000 $3,90 2-A-1 102,03%
09/06/04 FiL 3º 122.( 1/2) 6F 1:12.45c d - f 20340 $*1.10 3-A-2 102,36%
7 HELLO
KARAKORUM 120 [D-7] 8 1-0-1
[-] [8%] D
10: 101,84% T
10: -
03/13/05 Aqu 7º 115.(8 1/2) 6F 1:12.71c d(i) - f 45000 $3,90 7-A-2 104,34%
02/25/05 Aqu 7º 118.(6 3/4) 6F 1:11.34c d(i) - f 45000 $23,10 7-C-6 102,81%
02/11/05 Aqu 5º 113.(8 1/2) 6F 1:13.19c d(i) - f 45000 $16,00 5-A-1 104,43%
01/28/05 Aqu 6º 120.(4 3/4) 6F 1:12.25c d(i) - f 45000 $7,10 6-B-7 102,19%
01/12/05 Aqu 3º 118.(5 1/2) 6F 1:12.03c d(i) - mud45000 $11,40 3-B-5 101,84%
12/12/04 Aqu 1º 114.( 1/2) 6F 1:12.37c d(i) - f 43000 $5,30 1-A-4 101,99%
11/26/04 Aqu 6º 119.(4 1/4) 6F 1:11.08c d - f 43000 $20,50 6-D-9 102,53%
In this race we have a really solid
selection, #1 Twin
Tower. In last three
races his VRValue generated (100,40%, 101,03%,
100,49%) was under the best VRValues in dirt for all of his contenders
(101,60%, 101,40%, 102,61%, 101,25%, 101,84%), the race distance is known for
him, he ran 16 days before and his VRV-Bonus is positive. For that he doesn’t
have any excuses if his loses this race.
For the second place you have #2 and
#3 with good possibilities though be attention that they aren’t too much
reliable in his performances (his VRValues are very changeable).
The final result was:
1 Twin Tower (PER) 7.60 4.20 3.00
4 Blazing Tune 9.00
5.50
2 Atlantic Patrol 4.60
$2 Exacta $68.50
$2 Quinella $42.00
$2 Trifecta $235.00
# Case “Many options by VRValues”
9th Race - Philadelphia
Park - Monday, March
21st, 2005 Allowance. Purse $22,000.
Selections: 11 6
7 1M 70Y Dirt
1 RISQUE
CENTERFOLD 117 [A-4] 9 2-0-2
[+] [12%] D 10: 100,92% T
10: -
03/05/05 Pha 1º 120.( 1/2) 1M 1:39.39c d - f 15000 $14,40 1-C-4 100,92%
02/06/05 Pha 4º 120.(4 1/4) 1M 70Y 1:45.16c d - f 17700 $9,10 4-C-5 103,07%
01/15/05 Pha 1º 117.(2 1/2) 1M 70Y 1:44.65c d - g 13500 $16,00 1-C-6 102,29%
01/01/05 Pha 8º 118.(11) 1 1/16M 1:49.46c d - f 15930 $27,50 8-C-6 104,32%
11/29/04 Pha 8º 111.(11 1/4) 1 1/16M 1:46.93c d - f 12912 $7,10 8-B-6 104,50%
11/09/04 Mea 3º 112.(9 1/2) 1M 1:38.71c d - f 15495 $7,60 3-C-5 104,89%
10/26/04 Mea 3º 114.(2 1/2) 1M 70Y 1:43.72c d - f 16528 $52,20 3-C-7 103,90%
2 PLAYMAKER
117 [A-6] 10 2-4-2
[+] [8%] D 10:
101,24% T 10: -
02/19/05 Pha 3º 117.(7 3/4) 1M 70Y 1:45.10c d - f 27280 $*1.30 3-B-1 102,09%
02/01/05 Pha 2º 117.(4 1/4) 1 1/16M 1:45.76c d - f 25960 $11,50 2-B-5 102,07%
01/04/05 Pha 3º 117.(2 1/2) 1 1/16M 1:46.61c d - f 23000 $10,70 3-B-5 101,24%
12/17/04 Pha 2º 116.(4 3/4) 1M 70Y 1:43.81c d - f 24780 $10,10 2-C-3 102,39%
11/30/04 Pha 4º 115.(7) 1 1/16M 1:45.57c d - f 21000 $11,40 4-B-3 102,91%
11/02/04 Pha 2º 116.(7 1/4) 1 1/16M 1:45.77c d - f 13500 $6,90 2-D-5 101,93%
10/17/04 Pha 1º 115.( 3/4) 1M 70Y 1:45.36c d - f 12500 $47,00 1-B-3 103,26%
3 SHE´S
FANCY FREE 117 [D-11] 9 1-2-1
[ ] [2%] D 10: 103,07% T 10: -
03/05/05 Pha 1º 122.(8 1/2) 1M 70Y 1:43.45c d - f 17700 $3,80 1-D-5 103,07%
02/22/05 Pha 4º 121.(9) 6F 1:11.46c d - g 15495 $*1.50 4-C-2 106,31%
01/19/05 Pha 2º 122.(1 1/4) 7F 1:24.71c d - f 12720 $3,30 2-B-2 105,14%
01/07/05 Pha 2º 122.(1 1/2) 5 1/2F 1:07.12c d - g 12720 $6,80 2-B-3 104,85%
12/10/04 Pha 5º 119.(4 1/4) 6 1/2F 1:20.57c d - slo 14000 $13,00 5-B-8 105,14%
11/26/04 Pha 9º 120.(28) 6F 1:12.52c d - f 16552 $7,40 9-B-3 110,05%
11/09/04 Pha 8º 120.(22) 5 1/2F 1:05.65c d - f 21860 $8,50 8-E-5 110,01%
4 INDY
REIGN 117 [C-9] 2 1-0-0
[ ] [3%] D 10: 102,31% T 10:
-
02/27/05 Pha 5º 122.(7 1/4) 7F 1:24.98c d - f 22726 $6,40 5-B-2 103,74%
02/12/05 Pha 1º 122.(DH) 7F 1:26.87c d - f 26733 $10,50 1-Z-99 102,31%
5 ALARMING
FANTASY 117 [B-7] 11 3-0-0
[+] [7%] D 10: 101,66% T
10: -
02/26/05 Pha 1º 120.(DH) 1M 1:41.58c d - f 10500 $2,50 1-B-3 101,66%
02/11/05 Pha 1º 116.(1 1/2) 1M 70Y 1:46.74c d - f 10846 $3,90 1-C-8 102,44%
01/09/05 Pha 6º 118.(11 1/2) 6F 1:12.27c d - mud 11476 $5,10 6-B-3 106,74%
12/26/04 Pha 7º 110.(15 1/2) 5 1/2F 1:04.14c d - f 11780 $6,40 7-A-1 108,54%
12/10/04 Pha 5º 119.(2) 6F 1:13.36c d - slo 11210 $2,80 5-C-5 103,58%
11/23/04 Pha 1º 111.(2 1/4) 5 1/2F 1:06.25c d - f 9290 $3,80 1-D-5 104,27%
10/21/04 Mea 7º 115.(35 1/4) 1M 1:37.37c d - f 39368 $45,30 7-E-6 108,10%
6 DIANA
OF THE WOODS 117 [A-2] 1 0-0-1
[+] [16%] D 10: 101,68% T
10: -
03/07/05 Pha 3º 117.(3) 6F 1:10.59c d - f 22726 $5,30 3-Z-99 101,68%
7 BRANT POINT
117 [A-3] 7 1-3-0
[ ] [14%] D 10:
101,08% T 10: 101,36%
03/09/05 Aqu 4º 115.(4) 1M 70Y 1:44.04c d(i) - f 19000 $3,60 4-B-1 103,45%
02/01/05 Pha 2º 120.(nk) 1
1/16M 1:46.63c d - f 13500 $2,10 2-A-1 101,31%
12/30/04 CRC 1º 119.(7 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:50.02c d - f 8500 $*0.20 1-A-1 101,84%
12/16/04 CRC 2º 119.(4 1/4) 1M 1:43.58c d - f 8500 $*1.30 2-A-1 103,93%
11/18/04 Haw 2º 120.( 1/2) 1M 70Y 1:45.93c d - f 17460 $2,40 2-B-1 101,08%
09/26/04 Haw 7º 120.(9) 1 1/16M 1:43.80c t - frm 26000 $4,10 7-B-2 102,74%
08/15/04 Arl 4º 118.(6 1/4) 1 1/16M 1:43.63c t - frm 26040 $*2.70 4-Z-99 101,36%
8 GINGERELLA
117 [B-8] 7 1-2-1
[-] [6%] D 10: 101,21% T 10: -
02/19/05 Pha 5º 117.(14 1/2) 1M 70Y 1:45.10c d - f 27280 $6,10 5-B-4 103,38%
01/03/05 Pha 9º 117.(6 1/4) 1 1/16M 1:48.64c d - f 27280 $22,90 9-B-2 102,28%
12/02/04 Wo 3º 118.(3 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:47.75c d - f 20100 $7,65 3-C-2 101,88%
11/20/04 Wo 2º 118.( 1/2) 1 1/16M 1:48.98c d - mud 17200 $5,30 2-D-2 101,21%
11/04/04 Wo 1º 118.(1 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:51.22c d - mud 14300 $5,30 1-C-3 102,68%
10/11/04 Wo 2º 114.( 1/2) 6F 1:13.68c d - f 13000 $15,00 2-B-3 104,48%
09/04/04 FoE 4º 120.(4) 6 1/2F 1:18.72c d - f 12900 $4,85 4-Z-99 103,99%
9 MODISTA
117 [D-10] 11 0-2-1
[-] [3%] D 10: 102,23% T 10:
-
02/19/05 Pha 2º 117.(4 3/4) 1M 70Y 1:45.71c d - f 24046 $15,50 2-D-6 102,23%
02/06/05 Pha 7º 118.(8) 5 1/2F 1:05.44c d - f 10383 $6,00 7-A-5 106,48%
12/18/04 Pha 5º 117.(12) 7F 1:24.30c d - f 11660 $8,00 5-B-4 105,75%
12/11/04 Pha 5º 117.(15 1/4) 5 1/2F 1:05.20c d - slo 12500 $13,50 5-D-4 105,84%
11/26/04 Pha 2º 118.( 3/4) 5 1/2F 1:06.42c d - f 12023 $32,40 2-B-7 103,72%
11/18/04 Pen 5º 113.(6 1/2) 5 1/2F 1:06.00c d - f 10100 $9,80 5-C-5 106,80%
11/09/04 Pha 4º 114.(8) 6F 1:13.38c d - f 12023 $16,20 4-A-5 106,57%
10 JULIE´S
BRONZIE 110 [A-5] 8 1-1-2
[ ] [10%] D 10: 101,62% T
10: -
03/07/05 Pha 4º 109.(2) 6F 1:10.91c d - f 15370 $7,30 4-A-1 102,62%
02/13/05 Pha 3º 116.(3 1/4) 6F 1:11.52c d - f 14500 $9,40 3-C-3 102,00%
01/01/05 Pha 5º 118.(2 3/4) 6 1/2F 1:19.02c d - f 15370 $8,40 5-C-2 101,62%
12/11/04 Pha 1º 118.(3 1/4) 7F 1:26.16c d - slo 12500 $3,40 1-C-3 101,85%
11/27/04 Pha 2º 116.(3 1/4) 6F 1:12.03c d - f 12500 $4,30 2-A-2 103,45%
10/17/04 CT 6º 111.(7) 7F 1:29.44c d - f 29000 $28,00 6-D-7 103,08%
10/02/04 Pha 4º 112.(3 1/2) 6F 1:10.89c d - f 22260 $11,70 4-D-3 104,00%
11 KATY
KATERS 117 [A-1] 9 0-2-1
[+] [18%] D 10: 100,93% T
10: -
03/06/05 Pha 2º 117.( 1/2) 1 1/16M 1:46.43c d - f 26686 $9,60 2-C-3 100,93%
02/13/05 Pha 6º 117.(4) 6 1/2F 1:18.56c d - f 22000 $5,80 6-C-4 102,84%
01/16/05 Pha 3º 117.(5 1/4) 6 1/2F 1:17.20c d - f 27280 $16,80 3-D-7 102,06%
01/03/05 Pha 11º 117.(11) 1 1/16M 1:48.64c d - f 27280 $15,20 11-D-10 103,17%
11/22/04 Pha 4º 118.(11) 1M 70Y 1:45.05c d - f 12190 $*2.60 4-C-5 104,05%
11/02/04 Pha 4º 118.(14 3/4) 1 1/16M 1:45.77c d - f 13500 $2,60 4-D-6 103,16%
09/18/04 Del 2º 110.(4) 1 1/16M 1:48.06c d - slo 22300 $4,40 2-C-3 103,43%
In this race really difficult to succeed we will exemplify as the VRValues
theory works.
With the VRValues we can see that the winner will be close to 101,0 % probably between 101,00 and 101,5%. In a first analysis
we can see that the numbers 3, 4 and 9 don’t have many possibilities to win, the
VRV-Qualy say the same thing level C or D and orders
9 to 11. For the others horses we can say:
1)
Last race for she was the best in her history, and if
she can repeat this performance she would win.
2)
This Filly was close to 102% in the last two races,
it’s not enough to win this race. She must run as in January 14, have a good
record, maybe.
5)
Good last race but previous races were so bad and order
seven, for exotic bets only.
6)
In her return to the tracks she ran so well and has an
order two for today, that make her a really solid option to win this race.
7)
Last race at Aqueduct was so bad, but previous races
were in VRV’s close to 101%. Order three. She can surprise.
8)
She runs in every race worse than in the previous one. I don’t believe in her
today.
10) Close to
102% in last four races, i don’t discard her. Good
for exotic bets.
11) She improve
in every race, she can repeat last race and win today. Is the first option to
win this race.
The VRV-Qualy says: 11-6-7-1-10-2-5-8
Our analysis
says: 11- 6 have the best possibilities, 7-1-10 for exotic wagering, 2-5
looking really juicy results.
The final
result was 6 – 11 – 7 – 5 – 1 with the following odds:
6 Diana of the
Woods 4.80 3.40 2.80
11 Katy Katers 5.40 3.60
7 Brant
Point 5.40
$2 Exacta $38.60
$2 Trifecta $201.60
# “Many options by VRV-Qualy”
1st Race - Philadelphia Park - Tuesday, November 30th, 2004
Maiden Claiming. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt.
|
Number
|
Name
|
Wgt
|
VRV-Qualy
|
VRV-Plus
|
|
1 – SCR
|
Talkin Saratoga
|
113
|
E-14
|
-
|
|
2
|
Gayla´s Storm
|
120
|
A-2
|
+
|
|
3
|
Pick The Ravens
|
118
|
B-3
|
+
|
|
4 – SCR
|
Do My Thing
|
118
|
E-10
|
|
|
5
|
Sweet Georgie Girl
|
111
|
D-8
|
+
|
|
6
|
Remarkably
|
115
|
A-1
|
+
|
|
7
|
My Chick Dana
|
115
|
E-15
|
|
|
8
|
Hartland Xpress
|
122
|
E-11
|
-
|
|
9
|
I´m Tellin´ Ya Now
|
122
|
B-4
|
+
|
|
10
|
Rancocas Mist
|
122
|
D-7
|
|
|
11
|
Lizzie Lane
|
120
|
C-6
|
+
|
|
12
|
Centerofattraction
|
118
|
E-13
|
|
|
13 – SCR
|
Holley´s Ticket
|
122
|
E-12
|
-
|
|
14 – SCR
|
Dixie Legs
|
120
|
B-5
|
-
|
|
15 – SCR
|
Ides Pride
|
118
|
D-9
|
-
|
With the VRV-Qualy, we have in this race 4 horses with really possibilities to win
(numbers 2-3-6-9). All of the runners have a VRV-Bonus (+), therefore all 4
horses has a similar option, the number 6 is the favorite.
The VRV-Bonus say that the numbers 5 and 11 are horses to see in detail but not in
the first options. Maybe as a Longshots.
For special
wagers like trifecta or superfecta we recommend use the participants up to
the position 6 (number 2-3-6-9-10-11, the number 14 was scratched) and the horses with VRV-Bonus+ (the number 5). In this case I bet the following trifecta: to first 2-3-6-9, to
second 2-3-6-9 and to third 2-3-6-9-10-11-5, with a cost of 120 $ ($2 trifecta).
The final
result was:
|
Final Position
|
Number
|
Name
|
Wgt
|
VRV-Qualy
|
VRV-Bonus
|
|
1
|
9
|
I´m Tellin´ Ya Now
|
122
|
B-4
|
+
|
|
2
|
6
|
Remarkably
|
115
|
A-1
|
+
|
|
3
|
10
|
Rancocas Mist
|
122
|
D-7
|
|
|
4
|
11
|
Lizzie Lane
|
120
|
C-6
|
+
|
|
5
|
3
|
Pick The Ravens
|
118
|
B-3
|
+
|
|
6
|
2
|
Gayla´s Storm
|
120
|
A-2
|
+
|
|
7
|
5
|
Sweet Georgie Girl
|
111
|
|